Gut feeling and instinct

Something as simple as walking requires us to have made a profound number of calculations that we don’t even consciously think about. Imagine having to write out instructions to program a machine on how to walk. There are so many calculations that must be made. It’s far more complex than we realize when we stand up to walk.

Joints along with many muscles are engaged and to the proper degree. Legs are coordinated so the result is continuous smooth forward motion. How far is your foot from the ground and how far should the step be? Our eyes and other senses are constantly alert for any obstacles that would be a hazard and need to be avoided. This information is used in coordination with the rest of the calculations necessary to walk. Why did we decide to walk in the first place? To get somewhere our brain calculated we needed to be. On and on and on. So many calculations. Yet we don’t even have to give much thought to all of this as we walk. It’s mundane. In other words, there are profound calculations our brains make every day without us even noticing.

Perhaps that is what a gut feeling or instinct is, a series of profound calculations that our brains have made, but we didn’t even notice ourselves making. Yet we have a sense for something, the gut feeling, the instinct. This, of course, isn't to say that a gut feeling is always right; just as we may occasionally stub our toe while walking due to a miscalculation or distraction.

Fully utilizing an opportunity

Interesting to read an archived Aug. 22, 1985, NY Times story MICROSOFT AND I.B.M. JOIN FORCES. From the article: “The International Business Machines Corporation has agreed with the Microsoft Corporation, a key software supplier, to develop fundamental software for personal computers, the companies said today.”

But what is most interesting is this additional note about the deal:

“But Microsoft will be able to sell the jointly developed operating systems to other computer manufacturers, which should allay industry fears that I.B.M. would one day migrate to its own, proprietary operating system. That could have locked others in the industry out of the market and made it impossible for existing software to run on future I.B.M. computers.”

Microsoft, at the time a newer, much smaller company, managed to move the incumbent giant IBM to make a major concession and allow Microsoft to “sell the jointly developed operating systems to other computer manufacturers”.

As the original article noted it appears this was to “allay industry fears that I.B.M. would one day migrate to its own, proprietary operating system”. It was feared that this would have allowed IBM to lock competitors out of the PC market. Ironically, by the 1990s that’s exactly what Microsoft, not IBM, was accused of doing.

There’s an interesting lesson in this story that a larger competitor, while having many potential tailwinds, may simultaneously be carrying a significant disadvantage. Being a new or small company can have its advantages.

Automation and customer service

Automation is a powerful tool for personalization. Yet, it can easily end up doing the opposite for a business. Have you ever canceled an appointment with a service provider only to later get an automated text message asking you how the visit (that didn't happen) went? The same goes for marketing automation. While there are plenty of great use cases for automation, it can easily turn into an efficient way to lay bare a company's lack of personal interest in its customers. This is especially true when automation is implemented by an outsourced marketing partner with little to no understanding of, or experience with, your customers. Automation alone can’t fix poor customer service.